Research

Capital Markets Review

4th Quarter 2022

4th Quarter 2022
During Q4, equity and fixed income markets delivered improved results while continuing to experience elevated volatility. However, the positive returns for the quarter came on the tail of a year that yielded significantly negative returns for many investors. Global equities ended 2022 with...

December 2022

Capital Markets Review
US equity markets declined in December, with most US equity indices posting mid-single digit losses during the month. Developed international equity markets finished the month relatively flat, although emerging markets lagged developed international markets and finished slightly negative...

November 2022

November 2022
Global equity markets continued to rebound during November. Most major US equity indices posted mid single-digit gains during the month, while most international equity indices posted low double-digit returns, led by emerging market equities which returned nearly 15% during the month...

October 2022

Capital Markets Review
Global equity markets rebounded sharply in October. Most major US equity indices posted high-single digit to lowdouble digit gains during the month, and most international equity indices posted low-to-mid single digit gains, with the exception being emerging markets which declined during the month...

3rd Quarter 2022

3rd Quarter 2022
In Q3, hopes for easing inflationary conditions and an eventual pivot to more accommodative monetary policy dominated investor sentiment in the first half, leading to strong gains for risk assets. As the quarter progressed, however, comments from Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) members took an...

September 2022

September 2022
Global equity markets pulled back sharply in September, with most major indices posting high-single digit to low-double digit losses during the month. Recession fears, along with persistent inflation, weighed on investor sentiment and contributed to the continued sell off in the stock market. Though inflation remains...

2nd Quarter

2nd Quarter 2022
Equity and fixed income markets declined significantly during the quarter while credit spreads widened amidst a very difficult period for nearly all asset classes. The inflationary environment worsened in Q2, even as global central banks moved aggressively to tighten monetary policy. Economic forecasters gradually reduced...

March 2022

1st Quarter 2022
Markets entered the year amid economic conditions characterized by high and rising inflation, a strong and improving labor market, and robust economic growth fueled by persistent consumer goods demand. With this backdrop, developed market central banks began the year signaling a willingness to gradually tighten financial conditions...

February 2022

February 2022

January 2022

January 2022

December 2021

December 2021

December 2021

4th Quarter 2021
Inflation in the United States finished December at 7.0%, according to the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index-a level not seen since 1982. The combination of supportive monetary policy, which kept long-term interest rates low, and an unprecedented $5 trillion-plus in fiscal stimulus related to pandemic relief buoyed...

November 2021

November 2021

October 2021

October 2021

September 2021

September 2021

August 2021

August 2021

September 2021

3rd Quarter 2021
The economic recovery slowed in Q3 compared to the rapid pace experienced in the first half of 2021. The recovery was impeded by a surge in COVID-19 infections as the delta variant spread around the world. The surge of infections, and resulting return to cautionary behaviors in developed markets, maintained the trend of...

July 2021

July 2021

June 2021

June 2021

June 2021

2nd Quarter 2021
In Q2, markets were defined by optimism stemming from reopening efforts, an accelerating global vaccine rollout, continued accommodative global central bank policy, and expectations for further fiscal expansion in the US. The supportive policy backdrop and expectations for improving global growth led to a strong quarter for...

March 2021

1st Quarter 2021
Vaccination rates in the US outpaced much of the developed world, with 28% of Americans having received a first dose of the vaccine by quarter-end compared to just 11% in the Eurozone and less than 5% in much of Asia. COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations fell considerably from winter highs in the US, as the economy tilted towards...

December 2020

4th Quarter 2020
In Q4, multiple fundamental developments reinforced market sentiment and kept many investors positioned to add incremental risk despite the relatively weak economic environment and ongoing global pandemic. Importantly, two closely watched vaccine trials from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna released promising efficacy results leading to emergency...

September 2020

3rd Quarter 2020
During the first two months of Q3, capital markets generally tracked the same trends that drove returns during the latter half of Q2, however volatility returned later in the period. After strong results in the first two months of the quarter, returns from risk assets reversed in September, due to growing concerns over a stagnating recovery and...

June 2020

2nd Quarter 2020
The disconnect between investor risk appetite and economic conditions reached staggering levels during the second quarter. These conditions were largely fueled by fiscal relief and liquidity reinforcing programs implemented by governments and global central banks in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic shutdowns. The S&P 500...

March 2020

1st Quarter 2020
The first quarter of 2020 was historic, both for markets and for the world at large, as a local outbreak in late 2019 of a previously unknown coronavirus in the Hubei Province of China morphed into a global pandemic. The disease caused by the virus, named COVID-19, has infected millions and led to tens of thousands of fatalities. In order to contain...

December 2019

4th Quarter 2019
The fourth quarter of 2019 was a strong period for global equity markets, with representative US, developed non-US, and emerging market indexes each substantially adding to gains realized earlier in the year. Emerging markets led with returns of 11.8%, while US markets added 9.1% to calendar year returns. Credit markets also finished...

September 2019

3rd Quarter 2019
Financial markets experienced bouts of volatility during Q3 as dominant market themes from the past few quarters persisted. Market participants noted that investor sentiment continued to be significantly influenced by signs of global economic weakness, geopolitical concerns largely stemming from ongoing tariffs and trade...

June 2019

2nd Quarter 2019
During the second quarter of 2019, most global risk assets added to gains realized during the first quarter, albeit with considerable bouts of volatility tied to heightened geopolitical tensions and the evolving China-US trade dispute. Strong returns realized in April were erased in May, as confidence in the steady...

March 2019

1st Quarter 2019
Risk assets and fixed income markets performed well over the first quarter, largely driven by a more accommodative stance by the Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC"). Indeed, the global equity market, as represented by the MSCI All Country World Index, rose over 12% during the quarter, while fixed income markets...

December 2018

4th Quarter 2018
The fourth quarter of 2018 was characterized by a heightened level of volatility and negative returns for the majority of risk assets. Though equity markets experienced an initial decline in October, the strongest risk-off environment emerged in December as global growth forecasts, inflation expectations, and...

September 2018

3rd Quarter 2018
Continued US economic growth and monetary policy divergence from global trade partners drove domestic equity and interest rate markets higher during the third quarter of 2018, while international growth expectations broadly continued to slow. Geopolitical risks, particularly those driven by...

June 2018

2nd Quarter 2018
The US dollar strengthened significantly relative to a trade weighted basket of currencies during the second quarter of 2018, reversing a trend of weakening that began over a year earlier. This tightening dollar liquidity environment and the escalating trade tensions between the United States and...

March 2018

1st Quarter 2018
Following a period of unprecedented market calm in 2017, the first quarter of 2018 was characterized by higher levels of volatility as investors reacted to the prospect of higher future inflation, rising interest rates and a potential trade war between the United States and China...

December 2017

4th Quarter 2017
Price action across global financial markets continued to be driven by expectations of ongoing economic growth and generally accommodative central bank policies, with equity markets trading to record levels and global sovereign debt yields continuing to trade within recent ranges. The S&P 500 Index returned 6.6% during Q4, while the MSCI ACW Ex US Index rose 5.0%...

September 2017

3rd Quarter 2017
Expectations for continued global growth, as well as US fiscal policy stimulus, were again cited as the primary factors driving equity markets to record levels. Indeed, the S&P 500 index returned nearly 4.5% over Q3, while the MSCI ACW Ex US index rose approximately 6.2%. Oil markets also traded higher during the period...

June 2017

2nd Quarter 2017
Global risk assets continued to perform well during the second quarter of 2017, with gains broadly supported by strengthening economic data related to global inflation, job growth, and corporate fundamentals. In contrast to prior runups in risk assets, the past quarter was marked by high levels of sector and market factor dispersion...

March 2017

1st Quarter 2017
Global risk assets rallied during the first quarter of 2017, driven largely by continued positive expectations for US fiscal policy, as well as continued improvements in global economic growth and inflation, more broadly. Duration sensitive assets, however, traded with less conviction and direction, as sovereign debt yields of developed economies....

December 2016

4th Quarter 2016
The fourth quarter of 2016 was positive for US equities, but generally negative for international developed and emerging market equities. Duration sensitive assets also suffered as the market priced in rising US interest rates and higher inflation expectations. The unexpected result of the United States presidential election produced an initial market shock....

September 2016

3rd Quarter 2016
The third quarter of 2016 was generally positive for risk assets. Global equity and credit markets rallied with both developed and emerging markets adding to gains realized earlier in the year. July was a particularly strong month for equities as volatility sparked by the UK referendum vote in June subsided. Government bond returns were....

June 2016

2nd Quarter 2016
The second quarter of 2016 was characterized by a broad based rally across commodities, a stable US dollar, and a flight to safety on the back of the UK's referendum vote to leave the European Union. The current six month pause in cyclical US dollar strength and the corresponding commodity bounce provided support for emerging market assets....

March 2016

1st Quarter 2016
Negative investor sentiment and economic uncertainty drove sharp declines in equity and commodity markets during the first two months of 2016. However, this trend reversed dramatically in March due to renewed optimism leading to marginal gains from global equities. Global fixed income appreciated as concern over disinflationary pressure...