4th QuarterIn Q4, mulitple fundamental developments reinforced market sentiment and kept many investors positioned to add incremental risk despite the relatively weak economic environment and ongoing global pandemic. Importantly, two closely watched vaccine trials from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna released promising efficacy results leading to emergency... |
October 2020 |
September 2020 |
September 2020During the first two months of Q3, capital markets generally tracked the same trends that drove returns during the latter half of Q2, however volatility returned later in the period. After strong results in the first two months of the quarter, returns from risk assets reversed in September, due to growing concerns over a stagnating recovery and... |
August 2020 |
July 2020 |
June 2020 |
June 2020The disconnect between investor risk appetite and economic conditions reached staggering levels during the second quarter. These conditions were largely fueled by fiscal relief and liquidity reinforcing programs implemented by governments and global central banks in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic shutdowns. The S&P 500... |
May 2020 |
April 2020 |
March 2020 |
March 2020The first quarter of 2020 was historic, both for markets and for the world at large, as a local outbreak in late 2019 of a previously unknown coronavirus in the Hubei Province of China morphed into a global pandemic. The disease caused by the virus, named COVID-19, has infected millions and led to tens of thousands of fatalities. In order to contain... |
February 2020 |
January 2020 |
December 2019The fourth quarter of 2019 was a strong period for global equity markets, with representative US, developed non-US, and emerging market indexes each substantially adding to gains realized earlier in the year. Emerging markets led with returns of 11.8%, while US markets added 9.1% to calendar year returns. Credit markets also finished... |
September 2019Financial markets experienced bouts of volatility during Q3 as dominant market themes from the past few quarters persisted. Market participants noted that investor sentiment continued to be significantly influenced by signs of global economic weakness, geopolitical concerns largely stemming from ongoing tariffs and trade... |
June 2019During the second quarter of 2019, most global risk assets added to gains realized during the first quarter, albeit with considerable bouts of volatility tied to heightened geopolitical tensions and the evolving China-US trade dispute. Strong returns realized in April were erased in May, as confidence in the steady... |
March 2019Risk assets and fixed income markets performed well over the first quarter, largely driven by a more accommodative stance by the Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC"). Indeed, the global equity market, as represented by the MSCI All Country World Index, rose over 12% during the quarter, while fixed income markets... |
December 2018The fourth quarter of 2018 was characterized by a heightened level of volatility and negative returns for the majority of risk assets. Though equity markets experienced an initial decline in October, the strongest risk-off environment emerged in December as global growth forecasts, inflation expectations, and... |
September 2018Continued US economic growth and monetary policy divergence from global trade partners drove domestic equity and interest rate markets higher during the third quarter of 2018, while international growth expectations broadly continued to slow. Geopolitical risks, particularly those driven by... |
June 2018The US dollar strengthened significantly relative to a trade weighted basket of currencies during the second quarter of 2018, reversing a trend of weakening that began over a year earlier. This tightening dollar liquidity environment and the escalating trade tensions between the United States and... |
March 2018Following a period of unprecedented market calm in 2017, the first quarter of 2018 was characterized by higher levels of volatility as investors reacted to the prospect of higher future inflation, rising interest rates and a potential trade war between the United States and China... |
December 2017Price action across global financial markets continued to be driven by expectations of ongoing economic growth and generally accommodative central bank policies, with equity markets trading to record levels and global sovereign debt yields continuing to trade within recent ranges. The S&P 500 Index returned 6.6% during Q4, while the MSCI ACW Ex US Index rose 5.0%... |
September 2017Expectations for continued global growth, as well as US fiscal policy stimulus, were again cited as the primary factors driving equity markets to record levels. Indeed, the S&P 500 index returned nearly 4.5% over Q3, while the MSCI ACW Ex US index rose approximately 6.2%. Oil markets also traded higher during the period... |
June 2017Global risk assets continued to perform well during the second quarter of 2017, with gains broadly supported by strengthening economic data related to global inflation, job growth, and corporate fundamentals. In contrast to prior runups in risk assets, the past quarter was marked by high levels of sector and market factor dispersion... |
March 2017Global risk assets rallied during the first quarter of 2017, driven largely by continued positive expectations for US fiscal policy, as well as continued improvements in global economic growth and inflation, more broadly. Duration sensitive assets, however, traded with less conviction and direction, as sovereign debt yields of developed economies.... |
December 2016The fourth quarter of 2016 was positive for US equities, but generally negative for international developed and emerging market equities. Duration sensitive assets also suffered as the market priced in rising US interest rates and higher inflation expectations. The unexpected result of the United States presidential election produced an initial market shock.... |
September 2016The third quarter of 2016 was generally positive for risk assets. Global equity and credit markets rallied with both developed and emerging markets adding to gains realized earlier in the year. July was a particularly strong month for equities as volatility sparked by the UK referendum vote in June subsided. Government bond returns were.... |
June 2016The second quarter of 2016 was characterized by a broad based rally across commodities, a stable US dollar, and a flight to safety on the back of the UK’s referendum vote to leave the European Union. The current six month pause in cyclical US dollar strength and the corresponding commodity bounce provided support for emerging market assets.... |
March 2016Negative investor sentiment and economic uncertainty drove sharp declines in equity and commodity markets during the first two months of 2016. However, this trend reversed dramatically in March due to renewed optimism leading to marginal gains from global equities. Global fixed income appreciated as concern over disinflationary pressure... |
December 2015World equity markets rallied in October following a period of heightened volatility during the prior quarter. Positive price momentum proved to be short lived, however, as most markets gave back a significant portion of early gains by quarter's end. As a whole, 2015 had few bright spots... |
September 2015U.S. Dollar strength and weaker than anticipated global demand contributed to broad declines for most risk assets in Q3. Equity markets in emerging market and commodity-sensitive countries suffered the greatest losses, largely in response to weakening economic indicators in China and a subsequent devaluation of the Yuan. Overall, global equity markets suffered declines... |
June 2015Market activity in the second quarter of 2015 saw the reversal of several major trends. First, U.S. Dollar strength dissipated to a degree, as it sold off almost 3% relative to other developed currencies. Second, developed market interest rates, which had been trending lower and were negative in some markets, reversed sharply. And third, oil prices, in part helped by weakness... |